Analysis says electric vehicles sales not affected by incentives

Engineerblogger
Sept 29, 2011

A study by JATO Dynamics suggests government incentives are having little impact on the sales of electric vehicles.

According to JATO, demand for electric vehicles (EV) increased ten-fold to 5,220 across Europe in the first half of this year compared to the 500 registered in the same period last year.

Germany, where incentives amount to around €380 (£330) per vehicle, is the leading EV market with January–June registrations of around 1,000. Denmark has incentives which amount to some €20,600 over five years of ownership but registered fewer than 300 EVs in the same period.

Where incentives are similar — such as Spain and the UK at around €6,500 per vehicle — there is a wide gap between registrations. The UK registered 599 EVs and Spain 122.

Gareth Hession, JATO’s vice-president for research, said: ‘The discrepancies highlight the apparently low influence of price on purchase decisions across the region.

‘Given this, it’s reasonable to conclude that sales are more affected by other factors such as the degree of urban geography, market maturity and charging infrastructure than was previously thought.’

Other factors that JATO believes influences EV ownership are the rights to use bus lanes and free city centre parking, such as in Oslo, and exemption from congestion charges as in London.

Europe’s biggest EV markets in the first half of this year after Germany were France (950 units), Norway (850), the UK (600), Austria (350) and Denmark (280). Spain (120) and Italy (100) were at the bottom of the table.

In a statement Hession said the EV market is set for significant growth, adding: ‘As the market matures we might expect subsidies to exert greater influence as other considerations such as charging infrastructure are addressed.

‘As it stands today, even the large subsidies don’t address the majority of end user concerns around real world application, flexibility and fitness for purpose.

‘It will be critical for manufacturers to better understand the factors if they are to maximise customer engagement and sales growth.’

Source: The Engineer

Additional Information:

• Report: Incentives Fail to Stimulate European Electric Vehicle Sales

The Shrinkage Solution

Technology Review
Sept 14, 2011

In 1966, a Nobel Prize-winning biologist named Joshua Lederberg suggested, in an essay in the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, that because human evolution could now be directed by scientific means, we ought to seriously consider what kinds of changes we might like to see. A year later, in a provocative—and bizarre—essay for the July 1967 issue of Technology Review, a pair of MIT civil-engineering professors named Robert Hansen and Myle Holley considered one such change: making people smaller.

We wish here to comment on one kind of human change—a change of physical size—which apparently would be far less difficult to achieve than the modifications we infer to be potentially feasible through genetic alchemy. Indeed, it is our understanding that controlled, substantial modification of size may require only the judicious application of findings in the area of endocrinology.

The authors never got into the specifics of how humans might be made smaller, or how much smaller they should be. They acknowledged that the idea would probably generate "widespread antagonism," but they argued that given our emerging capacity for genetic engineering, it would be reckless to ignore the possibilities altogether: "Can we afford not to consider, in all its aspects, the question of human size?"

If, as the authors believe, the question of human size merits thought, it appears more reasonable to consider a decrease rather than an increase in size. First, an increase in size would clearly aggravate the problems we already associate with our excessive rate of population growth. Second, the advantages of large size and physical strength (in the performance of useful labor, the resolution of individual and group conflicts, etc.) have been almost entirely eliminated by technology.

Smaller people, they wrote, would need less food and tinier houses. They'd create less waste. And the smaller you are, the bigger the world seems. "A reduction in man's size might be compared to an increase in the size of the earth," the authors noted.

Consider, as but one example, the relation of man's size to the facilities provided for his transportation. Smaller man could mean smaller vehicles, either smaller highway rights of way or greater capacity for existing highways, easier provision for off-street parking ... Similar benefits of smaller human size become apparent in buildings.

In a section called "What Price Man's Shrinkage?" they addressed the "problems of transition." For instance: How would people react emotionally to such a proposal? Would they be less able to endure cold weather? And at what rate should the shrinkage occur? Five percent per decade? Twenty-five percent?

Allowing for an inevitable transition period, will smaller man really be comfortable in lesser space (or volume) than his larger predecessors have come to expect? ... If a change in size appears desirable, what incentives, if any, will lead to its achievement through free, individual choice?

Strange as the argument sounds, it did resonate as late as 1995, when an essay in The Futurist briefly cited Hansen and ­Holley's work in TR before pointing out that pygmies are physically fine at four and a half feet tall. Hansen and Holley emphasized that they weren't necessarily advocating making people smaller—they were simply (as ­Lederberg advised) giving the idea the careful thought they believed it deserved.

Needless to say effective consideration of this question will require not only effort within the scientific and humanistic communities, but frank and sympathetic interactions between the two. The end product of such inquiry and debate is not predictable. Possible conclusions range from feasibility, desirability, and moral acceptability to impossibility for technical, social, or other reasons. But need we prejudge the issue? Or should we seriously study the question?

Manufactured Goods Lead Surge in Indian Exports

New York Times
July 25, 2011

When Ranjit Date returned to India 20 years ago after earning a doctorate in robotics from an American university, he hoped to help automate factory assembly lines in his home country.

His company, Precision Automation and Robotics India, has done that. But more recently it has also begun selling robots to Western manufacturers like Caterpillar, Ford and Chrysler. This year, in fact, a third of Precision Automation’s sales will come from exports, up from almost nothing five years ago.

Mr. Date’s company is emblematic of a recent surge in exports of engineered and other sophisticated goods from India — a country perhaps better known for exports of skilled services like software outsourcing.

But in fact, Indian exports of goods are now nearly double exports of services, growing 37.5 percent, to $245.9 billion, in the 12 months that ended in March. Leading the way are high-value products like industrial machinery, automobiles and car parts, and refined petroleum products.

Indian exports are following a different path from that taken by other Asian countries like Japan, Korea and China. Those countries started by exporting products like garments and toys made by large numbers of low-paid, low-skilled workers, before moving to more sophisticated products like cars and industrial machinery.
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Industrial Robotics Market Opportunities in Russia

Robotic Industries Association
July 13, 2011

Spanning nine time zones and over 17 million square miles, Russia is not only the largest country in the world, geographically, but also the richest on a per capita basis of the so-called “BRIC” countries (Brazil, Russia, India and China). Its $1.465 trillion economy is forecast to grow at 4.5 percent this year, and industrial production and manufacturing continue to increase. (Last year industrial production grew 8.3 percent, and through the first four months of 2011 year-over-year growth has run 5.6 percent.) With economic indicators like these, what’s not to like about the Russian market?

These statistics become especially compelling, when you consider that the Russian economy is underserved by robotics with comparatively few companies with a major presence in this market. But this may soon change. Russia’s top leaders, including President Dmitry Medvedev and Prime Minister Putin, have acknowledged the need for economic modernization. If Russia is to compete globally and insure a level of national income largely independent of oil exports, it must deploy automation technologies such as robotics that enable the necessary cost efficiencies, productivity and product quality.

The size of the Russian economy, its performance, and the fact that it is generally underserved by automation companies suggest that it is an attractive target for robotics sales. But is it?

In a recent study entitled “Market Opportunities for Automation Companies in Russia, available free to RIA members and for sale to non-members in RIA’s online bookstore, RIA addressed this issue. For its analysis of the robotics market, the study considered not just the economy and robotic sales volumes but also the ins and outs of doing business in Russia. The picture that emerged from the study is of a country in great need of robotics technology but lacking in the basic underpinnings and protections of business that are taken for granted elsewhere. In short, while the Russian economy has made great strides in its transition from a centralized, publicly-owned economy, it still has a ways to go in creating fertile ground for businesses to flourish.
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Aerospace Industries Association Concerned by NASA, NOAA Cuts

Moonandback.com
July 12, 2011

The Aerospace Industries Association (AIA) is concerned about the substantial cuts being made to the budgets of NASA and NOAA in the House Appropriations Subcommittee on Commerce, Justice and Science markup of the fiscal year 2012 appropriations bill.

“We recognize that tough economic times call for tough choices,” said AIA President and CEO Marion C. Blakey. “However, cutting NASA and NOAA this deeply threatens American leadership in space and impairs our ability to make life-saving weather predictions.”

The subcommittee’s markup cuts NASA’s space programs by 10 percent from the President’s request and nearly 13 percent from the NASA authorization passed last October. AIA acknowledges that many NASA mission areas were adequately supported—but some suffered draconian cuts. Given the current fiscal environment, AIA believes the $18.7 billion in funding proposed by the President provides the minimum required for these important programs. AIA supports appropriations reflecting the policy priorities of the NASA Authorization Act of 2010 as closely as possible and opposes the termination of programs contrary to the priorities of the Authorization Act.

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Global Manufacturing Slows, Posing Dilemma as Prices Rise

Bloomberg
July 1, 2011

Manufacturing growth is slowing from China to Europe, creating a dilemma for central bankers considering higher interest rates to combat inflation.

China’s factory index fell to the lowest level since February 2009, while in the 17-nation euro area, a gauge slipped to an 18-month low. German manufacturing expanded at the weakest pace in 17 months, while Italy, Ireland, Spain and Greece contracted. In the U.K. and India, output growth also slowed.

“There is a broad-based slowdown taking place in the manufacturing sector,” Silvio Peruzzo, an economist at Royal Bank of Scotland Plc in London, said by telephone. “But it’s still too early to jump on the view that we’re heading toward an environment where activity will be contracting.”

Europe’s debt crisis and slowing U.S. growth are damping demand for goods, putting pressure on policy makers to delay further rate increases even as prices gain. Inflation quickened to the fastest pace since 2008 in China, exceeded 20 percent in Vietnam last month and sparked protests in India. Euro-area inflation remained at 2.7 percent in June, exceeding the European Central Bank’s 2 percent ceiling for a seventh month.

A rebound in U.S. manufacturing may ease concern about a global slowdown. A report today showed factory production unexpectedly accelerated in June, indicating that the industry is recovering from shortages of parts and components from Japan following the March earthquake and tsunami.
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Why Manufacturing Matters

Technology Review
July 1, 2011

Between 2000 and 2010, the number of manufacturing jobs in the United States declined by 34 percent—a loss of more than six million positions. For now America remains one of the world's greatest manufacturing powers—it makes 19.4 percent of the world's manufactured goods, a share that fell only slightly over the past 30 years and is right behind China's share of 19.8 percent. But hard questions remain about the future of production in an advanced industrial country like the U.S. The latest research suggests that the big recent decline in manufacturing jobs is due not only to increases in productivity, as we long thought, but also to large gains for Chinese imports.Do these global trends mean that manufacturing has a limited future in a high-wage country? Does the U.S. even need much domestic production when manufacturing has become a commodity that can easily and cheaply be purchased abroad? As the economy becomes more heavily dominated by services, why focus on manufacturing at all?

These questions have very old roots in American political economy. At the very beginning of the Republic, Alexander Hamilton was already arguing for industrial policies that would stimulate domestic production. More recently, in the 1980s, the rapid gains made by Japanese companies in industries like automobiles and consumer electronics stirred up huge political controversies over whether government should stave off this competition and try to sustain and revive U.S. manufacturing. The advocates for such policies argued that manufacturing plays a critical role in generating economic growth and employment opportunities and in assuring national security. The critics of industrial policies claimed that government was incapable of making good choices about industry—that it could not pick winners and losers. More fundamentally, the critics denied that there was anything special about manufacturing as distinct from other activities in the economy, or that any kind of manufacturing was more valuable than any other. As the director of the Office of Management and Budget in the first Bush administration put it: "Potato chips or silicon chips—who cares? They are both chips."
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Lessons in cultural awareness

Financial Times
May 18, 2011

It is 9.04am and a group of Chinese businessmen have assembled solemnly outside a hotel conference room in São Paulo. Brazil’s stock exchange operator, BM&F Bovespa, was scheduled to kick off its first ever capital markets forum with China four minutes ago but, like many meetings in the Latin American country, it did not start on time. As the Brazilian guests arrive, complaining loudly about the morning’s traffic and heading straight for the free breakfast, the huge cultural gap between the two emerging market powers becomes apparent.

Since China displaced the US in 2009 as Brazil’s biggest trading partner, Brazilian company executives and politicians have been scrambling to understand better the Asian giant in their midst and work out the best way to deal with it. BM&F Bovespa, for example, has long wanted to list Brazilian stocks in Shanghai – as it has done in places such as Hong Kong and Paris – but wooing the Chinese mainland has proved painfully slow.

“They’re not like the Americans or the Europeans,” Edemir Pinto, the exchange’s chief executive, explains in exasperation. “Sometimes, you have to sign a memorandum of understanding just to have lunch with the Chinese.”

Embraer, the aeroplane manufacturer, has also experienced a long struggle to expand operations in China while deals in other sectors have fallen through over such seemingly trivial things as a misinterpreted e-mail.
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Malaysia unveils plan to build 'green economy'

AFP
May 18, 2011

Malaysia is launching an ambitious plan to build a "green economy" with the help of an advisory council that includes economist Jeffrey Sachs and the UN climate change chief.

The initiative is part of economic reforms instituted by Prime Minister Najib Razak since taking power two years ago, aimed at pushing the Southeast Asian country towards developed-nation status by 2020.

His administration has already promised major infrastructure projects and financial market liberalisation to attract foreign investment and boost growth, but critics say the results have been limited.

Najib on Tuesday convened the first meeting of an eminent 42-member Global Science and Innovation Advisory Council in New York to help the nation achieve ambitions of becoming a science and technology innovation destination.

Malaysia's vision of a "green economy" would see it moving beyond its status as a manufacturing hub, and establish "low carbon emissions, highly efficient use of resources, and a healthy, well-educated populace."

"Malaysia's ambitious goal is to simultaneously reduce poverty and achieve a green economy," Najib said in a statement from New York.

"We see science and technology innovation as key to achieving that goal, guided by the advice and active support of some of the world's most distinguished entrepreneurial, scientific and economic experts."

"These experts will liaise and work actively with key Malaysian agencies and institutions to develop 'quick wins' in the palm oil industry, in the creation of a smart city and smart village, and in education."

As well as Sachs and Rajendra Pachauri, the chairman of the UN's Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, the panel also includes media tycoon Steve Forbes and two Nobel laureates.

Najib said the council would aim to "raise the number of scientifically and technically-trained individuals, entrepreneurs and innovators in our country."

Malaysia also hopes to develop smart cities and villages, where the Internet is available and resources, such as water and electricity, are managed efficiently through information technology.

Currently, the middle-income nation of 27 million people suffers from urban sprawl and traffic congestion in its capital Kuala Lumpur, and a lack of basic services in rural areas.

Citigroup economist Kit Wei Zheng said Najib's administration had achieved some successes including boosting foreign direct investment, but was under pressure to deliver ahead of elections tipped to be called within a year.

"At least on some fronts, there seem to be some results coming in... There are some steps forward but it's slow and probably not as big as the announcements that are being made," said the Singapore-based economist.

The export-dependent Southeast Asian nation saw a sharp decline in foreign direct investment (FDI) in 2009, tumbling 81 percent to $1.4 billion from $7.3 billion in 2008.

However, FDI jumped 141 percent to 17.1 billion ringgit ($5.5 billion) in the first nine months of 2010, in a rebound partly attributed to the reforms.

Malaysia has previously sought out high-profile international advisers like Microsoft's Bill Gates when it launched its Multimedia Super Corridor project to build up its information technology industry in the 1990s.

"It's a very fuzzy thing; we don't know what it is... The word 'green' is used very broadly," Gurmit Singh, chairman of the Centre For Environment, Technology and Development Malaysia, said of the latest scheme.

"There seems to be a lot of hot air. In terms of what happens sometimes at the ground level, it's a repackaging of projects," he told AFP.

Najib has said he expects the economy to expand by 5.0-6.0 percent this year despite the challenges of slower global growth and rising crude oil prices.

Expert: China's industry continues rapid growth

People's Daily Online
May 17, 2011

Slowdown in industrial growth is reasonable

The growth rate of the industrial added value of Chinese enterprises above the designated size (enterprises with annual sales of more than 20 million yuan) in the first quarter of 2011 was 5.2 percentage points lower than that of the same period of last year. The rate in April was 1.4 percentage points lower than that of March. The Chinese economy has entered a period of steady growth after recovering quickly from the global financial crisis with the help of a stimulus plan. A slowdown in industrial growth is an inevitable result of the ongoing industrial restructuring. Furthermore, there are also some other reasons behind the slowdown.

First, enterprises above the designated size witnessed rapid and considerable growth in industrial added value last year, which was a high base of comparison.

Second, the slow global economic recovery is facing increasing uncertainty. Japan's earthquake, tsunami and nuclear crisis have produced direct and indirect effects on the supply of key components in the automotive, electronics and other industries, and have affected China's industrial output to a certain degree.

Third, some industries are faced with the increasingly serious problem of overcapacity. Due to the central government's strict real estate control measures, domestic consumption dropped for items such as household appliances, furniture and building materials, which are closely related to the property industry, and some preferential policies and subsidy plans for auto purchases were terminated. As a result, the domestic demand for certain industrial products declined, and the steel, building materials, automobile, and some other industries are facing growing pressure from overcapacity, which affected the country's industrial growth to some extent.

Fourth, rising costs of factors of production and the global surge in the prices of energy and raw materials have placed domestic industrial enterprises under considerable pressure and caused certain industries to grow slower. Due to the imported inflation pressure and high inflation expectations, Chinese currency authorities have tightened up the monetary policy and imposed strict controls on bank loans. As a result, many enterprises, especially small and medium-sized enterprises, are suffering from capital shortages. In addition, the imbalance between energy supply and demand has become more serious because of the rapid development of high-energy-consumption industries.

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In the wake of the wind

Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory
April 11, 2011

On the Front Range within the Rocky Mountains, prevailing winds sweep eastward over the mountains smack into the National Wind Technology Center.

Several wind turbines, some taller than a 40-story building, spin and hum at the site, just outside of Boulder, Colo., waiting for an experiment to start in the next month.

The turbines not only produce power, they produce wakes -- similar to what forms in bodies of water -- that are invisible ripples and waves and other disturbances in the atmosphere downstream that can damage turbines and decrease efficiency. Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory researchers and collaborators will launch a study of those wakes this month, with an eye toward improving the efficiency of wind farms.

The scientists also will collect valuable data that will help validate the wind flow models developed at Livermore and other laboratories and universities.
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Natural Gas to Gain From Nuclear Crisis

UPI
March 22, 2011

As nations across Europe begin to question their reliance on nuclear power, natural gas could become the fuel of the moment.
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Government urged to support manufacturing in UK Budget

The Engineer
March 7, 2011

The UK government needs to deliver on its promises of supporting manufacturing and upgrading infrastructure in the upcoming Budget, according to engineering bodies.

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Japan's GDP Contracts, Surpassed by China in 2010

Bloomberg.com
Feb 14, 2011

Japan’s gross domestic product fell less than estimated in the fourth quarter in a pullback that may prove temporary as overseas demand revives production after the nation fell behind China as the world’s second-largest economy.

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