Study: Experts No Better at Predicting Dispute Outcomes

A study published by the Institute for Operations Research and the Management Sciences finds that experts are little better than novices in predicting the outcome of conflicts. Researchers compared the accuracy of 106 forecasts by experts and 169 forecasts by novices in eight real conflicts and found that neither group's forecasts were much more accurate than simply guessing. Although the experts were confident in the accuracy of their forecasts, the study's authors concluded that expert judgment should not be used for predicting decisions that people will make in conflicts. (HULIQ.com; Report and Commentary; INFORMS.) (Despite the title of the study, "The Ombudsman: Value of Expertise for Forecasting Decisions in Conflicts," there is no discussion of ombuds as dispute experts.)

This research gives ombuds one more excuse when pressed for an opinion: "My guess is a good as yours."

Why Your Website Needs a Photo

Dina Lynch, mediator and former ombuds, counts herself as an occasional member of the "Photo-Haters Club." You, too, might be a member if you've ever thought:

• I must admit I hate having my picture taken.
• I take a terrible photo.
• I don't need a headshot
• I'm an [ombuds] not a movie star
• It doesn't make a difference if my picture is there or not.

So if your website doesn't feature your picture, Dina urges you to change your mind. As she explains, this is a bad move "because people do business with people they like and trust, not highly polished, professional brochures or websites." Dispute resolution "is a trust based business so marketing should help increase that connection of trust, not deplete it." (Mediation Mensch.) It's good advice for ombuds.

(Related post Website Photo Mistakes to Avoid.)

Job Posting: Howard County Schools

The Howard County (MD) Public School System is looking for a new ombudsman, following the resignation of Robin Shell, the district's first ombuds. (Shell founded the ombuds office in January 2005 and resigned in June 2007. ) The ombuds reports directly to the Board of Education and serves as a neutral party for parents, staff and community members seeking equitable, reasonable and timely resolution of concerns. The ombuds also provides professional support to the Board of Education. This is a part-time (3 days/week), year-round position, with a salary range of $30,240-$54,084. Applications are due September 14. (HCPSS Job Posting; HCPSS Policy Statement re Ombuds; HCPSS Ombuds Report, July 2006; HCPSS Org Chart; Howard County Times.)

Series on The Negotiator's Fieldbook

Gini Nelson – who blogs about science, ethics and spirit in conflict resolution – is beginning a multi-part review of The Negotiator’s Fieldbook: The Desk Reference for the Experienced Negotiator, by Christopher Honeyman and Andrea Kupfer Schneider. Nelson describes the book as "a highly acclaimed and innovative resource for all conflict specialists." (Gini Nelson’s Engaging Conflicts.)

This is a resource I have been putting off reading, so I'm looking forward to Gini's review.

More Details Emerge Regarding DC School Ombuds

Although the DC Public Schools have not yet selected its ombuds, more information about the ombuds program has become public. According to the Washington Post, the new Office of the Ombudsman for Public Education will be staffed by three people: the director and lead ombuds, who will earn $92,700 to $139,050 a year; an associate ombudsman, who is expected to earn $85,000 a year; and an administrator, who will be paid $50,000 a year. The office has an initial budget of $440,000. In addition to providing dispute resolution assistance, the ombuds office will be expected to implement a database to track complaints and issues, and to provide frequent reports to the mayor, deputy mayor for education, chancellor, and State Board of Education. (Washington Post.)

So far, this all sounds good.

(Prior post DC Schools Close to Hiring Ombuds.)

New Mexico State University to Open Ombuds Office

At the Fall Convocation, NMSU President Mike Martin announced the university will start an ombudsman office to give faculty and students a less-formal route to deal with grievances. "We hope by having a structure to do this we avoid some of the unnecessary tensions that sometimes come when we have differences of opinion or differences of direction," he said. (Las Cruces Sun-News.)

What's somewhat confusing is that NMSU had a website for an ombuds office as recently as August 9. (Google cache of NMSU Office of the Ombudsman.) Maybe "reopening" would be more accurate.

Ombuds Endorsed for APA

The Committee on Ethnic Minority Affairs of the American Psychological Association has recommended the organization create an ombuds program. According to its report on Projects/Initiatives of High Priority for 2007:

CEMA strongly supports the development of an independent resource such as a Cultural Ombudsman or mediator within the APA organizational structure. The ombudsman would be an independent resource who would serve as a facilitator or mediator in situations when there is a grievance or conflict rooted in competing interests of diverse groups.

(APA Office of Minority Affairs Communique, see p. 22.)

The world's largest association of psychologists has endorsed university ombuds programs, so it will be interesting to see how it responds to this recommendation. (APA Monitor.)